The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Processors (VASEP) has predicted that Donald Trump's second term in the White House will have significant impacts on Vietnamese seafood exports.

These impacts stem from Trump's economic policies, including increased import tariffs, reduced corporate income taxes, and efforts to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the US.

According to VASEP, the US, China, and Japan are Vietnam's top three seafood export markets. By the end of October 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports to the US had reached $1.5 billion, an increase of 15% compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that seafood exports to the US will reach $1.85 billion in 2024, representing a 19% increase compared to 2023.

Over the past few years, the US has consistently been Vietnam's largest seafood export market. Vietnamese seafood exports to the US have ranged from $1.5 billion to $2.1 billion annually over the past five years.

According to VASEP, Trump's re-election and the continuation of his distinctive trade policies could present both opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese seafood exporters in the near future. 

Shrimp and pangasius (tra fish) are key Vietnamese seafood products exported to the US. 

Ms. Le Hang, Director of Communications at VASEP, stated that from 2019 to 2023, the US has been one of Vietnam's largest pangasius importers.  Vietnam's total pangasius export value reached over $2.4 billion and over $1.8 billion in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Of the respective figures, value from exports to the US accounted for $527 million (22%), and $271 million (15%).

VASEP predicts that Vietnamese pangasius exports will face challenges from the U.S.'s import tariffs to be increased by 10-20% on all countries, including Vietnam, resulting from Trump's "America First" policy.  

"Despite facing strict protectionist policies like anti-dumping and countervailing duties, the US market demand remains substantial, and the quality of Vietnamese seafood is steadily improving, helping to maintain and expand our position in this market," said Ms. Hang.

Vietnam Customs data indicates that pangasius exports to the US as of October 15, 2024, reached $275 million, an increase of 27% compared to the same period in 2023.

According to VASEP, Vietnam's total seafood export revenue for the first ten months of 2024 reached $8.33 billion, representing a 12% increase compared to the same period last year. This includes $3.23 billion in shrimp exports, an increase of 13.9%, and $1.54 billion in pangasius exports, an increase of 8.7% compared to the previous year.

"Remarkably, in October 2024 alone, Vietnam's seafood export revenue reached $1.1 billion, a nearly 31% increase compared to the same period last year. This marks the first time in 27 months (since June 2022) that monthly seafood exports have returned to the $1 billion mark—a positive milestone for Vietnamese seafood businesses," VASEP stated.

Source: VnEconomy