At a ceremony on December 25 to discuss Vietnam’s total merchandise import–export turnover for 2025, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) said Vietnam’s external trade reached a new high in 2025, total trade value for the year was estimated at $920 billion, up 16.9 per cent on-year. Exports were projected at $470.6 billion, while imports were estimated at $449.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of around $21.2 billion.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) said the 2025 result marked a significant milestone for Vietnam’s foreign trade, as total turnover surpassed the $800 billion level and moved close to $900 billion despite geopolitical tensions, trade frictions and uneven global recovery.

Reviewing the 2021–2025 period, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang reported at the meeting that export growth had become a central pillar of macroeconomic stability.

“Export growth during the 2021–2025 period has been very strong and has become one of the most important pillars supporting Vietnam’s economic development,” Thang said.

“Exports have contributed directly to GDP growth, enhanced the economy’s resilience to global shocks, helped stabilise the macroeconomy, and strengthened Vietnam’s position in global trade,” she said, “In addition, continuous trade surpluses over recent years have played a crucial role in maintaining exchange rate stability, controlling inflation and improving the balance of payments.”

Vietnam’s export basket in 2025 continued to be dominated by manufactured goods. According to MoIT estimates for the full year, processed and manufactured products accounted for about 85.2 per cent of total export value, equivalent to roughly $400 billion, up 16.6 per cent from 2024.

Agro-forestry-fishery exports were projected at $44.46 billion, an increase of 14.1 per cent on-year, accounting for about 9.5 per cent of total export turnover.

In terms of product breadth, 36 out of 45 export groups recorded turnover exceeding $1 billion in 2025. Among them, eight groups surpassed $10 billion, with a combined value of approximately $319 billion, accounting for 68 per cent of total exports, according to MoF data.

On the import side, 49 out of 53 import product groups recorded turnover exceeding $1 billion. Eight groups surpassed the $10 billion mark, with a combined value of around $281 billion, accounting for about 63 per cent of total imports.

Imports remained concentrated in production inputs, including machinery and equipment, computers and electronic components, textile and footwear materials, steel and other industrial metals. Imports of consumer goods, particularly automobiles, also increased.

Market concentration remained a defining feature of Vietnam’s trade structure. Vietnam maintained trade relations with more than 230 countries and territories in 2025, including 34 export markets and 24 import markets, each recording turnover above $1 billion.

China remained Vietnam’s largest trading partner, with two-way trade estimated at $252 billion, up 26.5 per cent on-year. The United States ranked second, with total trade estimated at $170 billion, also up 26.5 per cent.

The United States continued to be Vietnam’s largest export market, with shipments estimated at $151.85 billion, accounting for about 32 per cent of total export value. Other major export markets included China ($69 billion), the European Union ($56 billion), ASEAN ($38 billion), South Korea ($29 billion), and Japan ($27 billion).

Combined trade with China and the United States was estimated at $422 billion, equivalent to approximately 46 per cent of Vietnam’s total trade turnover and contributing more than 60 per cent of overall trade growth in 2025.

According to assessments by the MoIT, higher logistics costs, stricter technical standards and increased sustainability requirements continued to affect exporters, particularly in sectors with high exposure to the United States and the European Union.

The wood and wood sector illustrates these pressures. Its export turnover in 2025 was estimated at nearly $18 billion, based on figures cited by industry associations and reported by domestic media. While this represented a recovery compared with earlier years, growth was constrained by stricter environmental and traceability requirements in major markets.

Ngo Sy Hoai, vice chairman and secretary general of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association, said the operating environment for wood exporters had become more demanding.

“Demand recovered only slowly in 2025, while technical barriers and sustainability standards in major markets such as the United States and the European Union became increasingly stringent,” Hoai said. “These requirements have forced enterprises to adjust their production models, invest in traceability systems and focus more on higher value-added products.”

For 2026, compliance with green standards and deeper participation in global value chains will be key factors determining whether Vietnamese wood exporters can maintain their market share, Hoai added.

Similar challenges have been observed in other export-oriented industries, including textiles, footwear, seafood and electronics, where buyers have increased requirements related to carbon emissions, labour standards and supply-chain transparency.

The MoIT has set an export growth target of over 8 per cent for 2026, alongside a projected trade surplus of around $25 billion. The ministry said the target was set against a high base following strong growth in 2025 and in the context of continued global uncertainty.

International organisations including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have forecast that global economic growth in 2026 is likely to remain below long-term averages, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, public debt pressures and persistent trade uncertainty.

Tran Thanh Hai, deputy head of the Foreign Trade Agency at the MoIT, said export performance in 2026 would depend on how effectively businesses and authorities respond to these external developments.

“The global economy is recovering, but new tariff policies from the United States, as the world’s largest consumer market, will have significant spillover effects,” Hai said at a recent industry briefing.

“Vietnam’s export sectors, particularly textiles, footwear, seafood and electronics, will feel these impacts clearly. Enterprises need to strengthen market forecasting, diversify export destinations and prepare response scenarios, while authorities focus on early warning systems and trade facilitation,” he continued.

Source: VIR